July 2026 Multifamily Market Outlook: Midwest Markets Continue to Outperform

July 2026 Multifamily Market Outlook: Midwest Markets Continue to Outperform

Tom Moor

The multifamily market continues to adjust as new supply is absorbed and market conditions begin to stabilize. National rent growth remains modest as markets with high levels of new supply work to absorb recently completed apartments. But the national picture doesn’t tell the whole story.

Several of BAM Capital’s core markets are outperforming the national average, particularly in the Midwest. Kansas City and Indianapolis continue to post positive rent growth, while Des Moines is maintaining steady demand as new supply is absorbed. Northwest Arkansas is still working through heavier deliveries, while Pittsburgh remains relatively supply-constrained.

Here’s a look at the latest trends across BAM Capital’s core markets.

The Big Picture: Midwest Markets Continue to Stand Out

National apartment rents increased 0.2% year over year as of June 2026, according to Yardi Matrix. High levels of new supply continue to weigh on rent growth in several markets across the country.

The Midwest is performing better. Kansas City recorded 2.4% year-over-year rent growth, while Indianapolis was up 0.8%.

Multifamily lending is also picking up. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) raised the 2026 multifamily loan purchase caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to a combined $176 billion, a 20.5% increase from 2025. Fannie Mae originated $17.1 billion in multifamily loans during Q1, up 45% year over year, while Freddie Mac originated $13 billion, up 25%.

More available lending could make it easier for multifamily owners to fund acquisitions and refinance existing properties.

Market Occupancy Rent Growth (YoY)
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson Metro Area 94.22% 1.31%
Des Moines-West Des Moines Metro Area 93.96% 1.70%
Kansas City Metro Area 94.73% 1.36%
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers Metro Area 93.69% -3.26%
Pittsburgh Metro Area 94.84% -0.28

Indiana: Improving Fundamentals and Continued Job Growth

Indiana continues to show solid multifamily fundamentals. The Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson metro recorded 94.2% occupancy and 1.3% year-over-year rent growth, with several surrounding submarkets performing even better.

Fort Wayne stands out, with occupancy near 97% and rent growth above 11%.

Marcus & Millichap projects Indianapolis vacancy to fall 20 basis points to 5.0% by year-end, while effective rents are expected to increase 2.3% to approximately $1,345. New deliveries are projected to remain around 3,000 units, down roughly 55% from the 2024 peak.

Job growth is providing additional support. JD North America plans to establish its new headquarters in the Fishers District, adding up to 200 high-wage jobs while retaining approximately 400 existing positions.

For BAM Capital, this is especially relevant to Flats at Fishers, which is located in the Fishers District and could benefit from added jobs and renter demand.

Des Moines, Iowa: Steady Rent Growth as Supply Is Absorbed

Des Moines continues to work through its recent wave of apartment construction, but renter demand remains intact.

The Des Moines-West Des Moines metro recorded 94.0% occupancy and 1.7% year-over-year rent growth. Average apartment rent reached $1,109 as of July 2, up 1.1% from the previous year.

The area is also benefiting from significant investment. Iowa approved the expansion of Des Moines’ Capital City Reinvestment District by roughly 50 acres into the Market District, representing more than $600 million in planned mixed-use investment.

For BAM Capital’s Des Moines portfolio, steady rent growth and new investment in the area support the market’s long-term outlook.

Kansas City, Missouri: Platte County Continues to Outperform

Kansas City remains one of the most encouraging markets in BAM Capital’s portfolio, particularly in Platte County.

The metro recorded 94.7% occupancy and 1.4% year-over-year rent growth. Platte County is performing even better, with 94.8% occupancy and nearly 5% rent growth.

Kansas City is also seeing major investment in its urban core. The city approved $235 million in public funding to support the expansion of CPKC Stadium and development along the Berkley Riverfront, part of a roughly $1.4 billion project.

Continued investment across the region could support population growth, employment, and housing demand in the Northland. That’s especially relevant to BAM Capital, since Altitude 970 and Kinsley Forest are both in Platte County.

Northwest Arkansas: Near-Term Supply Pressure, Long-Term Growth

Northwest Arkansas continues to see strong long-term growth, but the market is facing more supply pressure in the near term. About 3,300 units are under construction, with roughly 1,220 delivered during Q2 alone. As a result, pre-leasing has slowed and competition for residents has increased.

The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro recorded 93.7% occupancy, with rent growth down 3.3% year over year.

This is important for Uptown Terrace, where new supply could lead to more competition in the short term for leasing and concessions. However,construction pipeline projections suggest a decline in new deliveries following this wave, though the duration of competitive pressure will depend on ongoing market conditions. 

At the same time, major investments are adding to the region’s long-term growth. The Walton family is developing plans for a 422,000-square-foot STEM-focused university in Bentonville, including a 400-bed residence hall. Life Time is also planning a 100,000-square-foot athletic club at Pinnacle Village in Rogers, directly across from Uptown Terrace.

Both projects could bring more residents and jobs to the area while adding amenities close to Uptown Terrace.

Pittsburgh, PA: Stable Suburban Market

Pittsburgh remains relatively stable, especially in its suburban markets.

The metro recorded 94.8% occupancy, while North Pittsburgh reached 95.7%. Marcus & Millichap expects vacancy to increase modestly to 4.9% by year-end, with rents projected to rise 0.8%. New supply also remains limited, with approximately 1,200 units expected to be delivered across the metro.

That is favorable for BAM Capital’s Pittsburgh assets. Ascent 430 is located in Wexford’s North Hills submarket, while Nox is completing lease-up in Robinson Township. Both are outside the areas seeing the most competition.

The region is also attracting significant corporate investment. Air announced a $450 million expansion of its Pittsburgh office, while Curtiss-Wright committed $80 million to expand its Cheswick campus and add approximately 150 jobs.

Continued investment from technology, defense, and other industries should support employment and housing demand across the region.

The Bottom Line for Investors

The July data shows why it’s important to look beyond national averages and focus on what’s happening in each market. While national rent growth remains modest, BAM Capital’s core markets continue to show steady or improving conditions, with slower construction, solid renter demand, and continued investment supporting growth.

While certain markets are still absorbing new supply, strong local fundamentals support an encouraging long-term outlook, subject to broader market conditions. Looking ahead, job growth, new supply, and local investment will continue to play an important role in how these markets perform and how BAM Capital manages its investments.

 

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial, tax, legal, or investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investment opportunities offered by BAM Capital and its affiliates are made pursuant to Rule 506(c) of Regulation D, available exclusively to accredited investors, as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and, if applicable, qualified purchasers, as defined by Section 2(a)(51) of the Investment Company Act of 1940. Verification of accredited investor status is required before participation in any investment.

Contact BAM Capital for details on current offerings. BAM Capital and its representatives are not fiduciaries or investment advisors. The information provided is general and may not reflect individual financial goals. Financial terms, projections, or forward-looking statements contained herein are hypothetical and should not be interpreted as guarantees of future performance or safety. Such statements reflect BAM Capital’s opinion and are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, and investment risks. Investing in private real estate securities involves significant risks, including, without limitation, illiquidity, economic downturns, and potential loss of invested funds or capital. Past performance does not predict or guarantee future results. Historical transaction figures represent past performance across multiple deals as of the date this information was published, not a single investment transaction. BAM Capital and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information. Prospective investors are strongly encouraged to conduct independent due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

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